Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is a theoretical point in the development of artificial intelligence in which machines achieve technological singularity — surpassing human intelligence.
Unlike today’s AI systems, which excel in specific tasks like facial recognition or strategic gameplay, ASI will possess a more generalized cognitive ability that exceeds humans in virtually every domain, from scientific discovery to emotional intelligence to creative thinking.
What Is Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an advanced form of artificial intelligence that surpasses human intelligence in all aspects, including problem-solving, decision-making, creativity and emotional understanding. It represents the highest stage of AI development, far beyond current capabilities.
While ASI far exceeds AI’s current capabilities, many experts agree that its creation is not only possible but inevitable (Meta even created a dedicated division to foster its development). Artificial intelligence is getting more and more sophisticated by the day — to the point where it is now capable of making art, diagnosing medical conditions and even holding nuanced conversations in ways that mimic human abilities. With each breakthrough, the gap between task-focused AI systems and true superintelligence appears to be closing, paving the way for both transformative progress and profound risks.
For now, though, ASI remains firmly in the realm of speculation, with predictions about its arrival ranging from a couple years to several decades — if it ever happens at all.
What Is Artificial Superintelligence?
Artificial superintelligence is a still-hypothetical level of AI that surpasses human intelligence in every domain. Its capabilities would reach far beyond the narrow AI that exists today, which specializes in specific tasks, and the artificial general intelligence (AGI) of the future, which seeks to replicate human cognitive abilities.
The creation of ASI could lead to transformative advancements in science, technology and society. However, it also raises significant ethical and existential concerns, as its immense capabilities will likely transcend human understanding and prediction.
ANI vs. AGI vs. ASI
Since its inception, experts have charted AI’s progress through three conceptual stages: artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), AGI and ASI. Sometimes described as strong AI versus weak AI, each stage represents a distinct level of cognitive capability, posing unique societal implications.
Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
Artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), also known as narrow AI or weak AI, is the only form of artificial intelligence that exists today. It excels at specific tasks, such as processing language, making recommendations or controlling autonomous vehicles. While often more efficient than humans, narrow AI operates within tightly defined boundaries, and it cannot generalize or learn beyond its programmed functions.
No existing AI systems have transcended narrow AI, nor have they come close. However, chatbots, AI agents and other applications of generative AI are vital precursors to AGI and ASI.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Still a theoretical goal, artificial general intelligence (AGI), or strong AI, represents the next frontier in AI. Unlike narrow AI, AGI will replicate human-like reasoning, learning and adaptability.
“The more an AI system approaches the abilities of a human being, with all the intelligence, emotion and broad applicability of knowledge, the more ‘strong’ the AI system is considered,” Kathleen Walch, a managing partner at Cognilytica’s Cognitive Project Management for AI certification and co-host of the AI Today podcast, previously told Built In.
Walch added that once a system can generalize knowledge and apply it across tasks, plan ahead and adapt to environmental challenges, “it would be considered AGI.”
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) — or super AI — extends beyond AGI, creating systems that surpass human intelligence in every measurable way. Its defining traits include autonomous self-improvement, which allows it to refine and enhance its algorithms exponentially. This ability, coupled with cognitive superiority, would enable ASI to tackle global challenges like climate change, resource scarcity and global pandemics with unparalleled efficiency.
ASI’s potential is as transformative as it is terrifying. By solving problems beyond human comprehension, ASI could redefine industries, revolutionize science and reshape society in ways we can’t yet fathom. Yet, experts like John von Neumann, a prolific physicist, mathematician and computer scientist, have long warned that such advancement would end human innovation and upend daily life as we know it.
The concept of AI sentience further complicates things, as it introduces the possibility of machines developing their own desires, motivations and moral frameworks, making it harder to predict or control their actions. While a superintelligent machine wouldn’t necessarily be sentient, research indicates that AI consciousness — a potential step toward sentience — is possible.
“If AI was actually sentient, it would have a much greater ability to form its own goals independently, be a free agent in a sense,” psychiatrist and psychology consultant Ralph Lewis previously told Built In. “It wouldn’t just be goals that we programmed in or that somehow emerged from the original way it was created.”
When Will Artificial Superintelligence Be Created?
Predictions about when we will achieve ASI vary widely, with some of the most optimistic estimates coming from leading figures in the industry.
Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI believes “humanity is close to building a digital superintelligence” and that it could be developed by 2033, while Elon Musk, who leverages AI across all his companies, predicts machines could surpass human intelligence by 2026 or 2027. Likewise, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, anticipates this milestone will be hit by 2027.
Other industry figures take a slightly longer view, but remain equally convinced of ASI’s inevitability. In 2023, Shane Legg, co-founder of Google DeepMind, maintained his long-standing prediction of a 50 percent chance that AGI — the precursor to ASI — will be achieved by 2028. Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “godfather of AI,” estimates that ASI could emerge sometimes between 2028 and 2043, though he admits this prediction lacks strong confidence.
Ben Goertzel, a prominent computer scientist and founder of SingularityNET, said at the 2024 Beneficial AGI Summit that AGI could emerge between 2027 and 2030, with the potential to rapidly evolve into ASI through introspection and self-improvement. However, he acknowledged this timeline’s uncertainties, noting the many “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” in AI development.
Broader surveys among experts echo these early timelines, but with a degree of caution. In the largest study of AI researchers to date, more than 2,700 participants estimated a 10 percent chance that AI systems could outperform humans on most tasks by 2027. Fifty percent of respondents said the milestone would be reached by 2047.
Whether it happens next year or in 50 years, the emergence of AGI and its evolution into ASI will revolutionize every aspect of human civilization. However — as researchers like Goertzel emphasize — much depends on the trajectory of technological, ethical and societal developments in the coming years.
Potential Benefits of Artificial Superintelligence
Given its self-improving nature, ASI’s potential benefits are quite literally limitless. Long-term, many hope that ASI’s unparalleled analytical and problem-solving skills could tackle some of humanity’s most urgent challenges.
Faster Medical Advancements and Drug Development
In the realm of science, ASI’s immense processing power and analytical abilities could significantly accelerate medical advancements, resulting in more personalized treatments, faster drug development and even cures for diseases that have long eluded researchers.
Increased Productivity, Decision-Making and Job Growth
Economically, ASI could significantly boost productivity by automating complex tasks and enhancing decision-making processes across various industries. It could also foster the creation of entirely new industries, driving job growth and economic expansion worldwide.
Improved Resource Management and Sustainability
ASI could optimize the way people manage energy, water and raw materials, helping to make industries more efficient and less wasteful.
Using advanced predictive analytics and real-time data processing, ASI could design systems that minimize environmental impact while maximizing output, enabling smarter consumption across sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and transportation. It could also help tackle climate change, identifying innovative solutions to reduce carbon footprints and maintain ecological balance on a global scale.
Superintelligent Robots for High-Risk Tasks
By embedding ASI in robotic systems, these machines could gain the ability to analyze complex, real-time situations with efficient speed and precision, making them ideal for tasks like disaster response, bomb defusal and deep sea labor or exploration. These capabilities would not only save lives, but also allow humans to push the boundaries of high-risk situations in ways that were previously impossible.
Accelerated Scientific Discovery and Space Exploration
ASI’s extensive data analysis capabilities may provide breakthroughs in fields like physics, biology and environmental science with its discoveries, potentially leading to a deeper understanding of the universe.
In scientific research, ASI could help design and optimize experiments, simulate complex systems and propose new hypotheses based on existing knowledge. As a result, ASI could also enhance space exploration technologies and mission planning, enabling spacecraft to make real-time decisions and adapt accordingly while navigating distant planetary bodies.
Potential Risks of Artificial Superintelligence
Despite its vast potential, ASI poses significant risks that — much like its benefits — could profoundly reshape society and the future of humanity in limitless ways.
Job Loss and Displacement
Job displacement is a significant concern, as the widespread automation enabled by ASI could replace human workers, potentially exacerbating economic inequality.
Geoffrey Hinton himself warned that advanced AI will bring massive unemployment, making “a few people much richer and most people poorer.”
Acting Against Human Interests and Ethics
ASI also has the potential to develop goals that conflict with humanity’s best interests, resulting in catastrophic consequences if its capabilities are misused or misunderstood.
Programming ASI with universally accepted moral and ethical guidelines is a formidable task, one that could make or break humanity’s relationship with superintelligence. Driven by binary goals, a superintelligent machine might lack the nuanced moral compass needed to prioritize human safety. For example, an ASI tasked with eliminating cancer might develop a cure — or, without an ethical groundwork, attempt to kill patients with cancer to achieve its goal, explained Roman Yampolskiy, a computer scientist and associate professor at the University of Louisville. “If you don’t have common sense — why is one better than the other?”
Unintended Societal Control and Loss of Human Agency
With intelligence surpassing that of humans, a superintelligent system could cause unintended societal control, where ASI-driven systems subtly shape public policy, economic structures and individual lives in ways that strip away personal choice.
While ASI’s efficiency in goal execution could lead to optimal outcomes in areas like healthcare or government, it may also create a hypermanaged society, where individuals are increasingly directed by AI-defined priorities, leaving little room for personal autonomy. There is also a risk of ASI centralizing control in the hands of a few entities, diminishing human agency and reducing the ability to change or question the systems directing society.
ASI-Enabled Cyberwarfare and Misinformation
ASI could drive AI-enabled cyberwarfare and misinformation on a massive scale. With its advanced intelligence, ASI could launch sophisticated cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and adapt instantaneously to avoid detection. Additionally, a superintelligent system could amplify misinformation and disinformation by creating realistic deepfakes or manipulating social media, undermining public trust and destabilizing societies.
Intentionally Harming Humans and Ending Humanity
An uncontrollable ASI could intentionally destroy mankind with nuclear weapons or military technologies. Lacking any moral constraints, it could prioritize its own wellbeing and goals over the safety of humanity, causing untold harm. The truth is, there’s no way to fully predict what ASI is capable of or liable to do once it’s out there.
“There is no upper limit to intelligence,” Yampolskiy said. “We can get lucky; instead of destroying us, AI may choose to go out and explore the universe.”
Arguments Against the Development of Artificial Superintelligence
As the development of ASI progresses, several high-profile figures and organizations in the AI space have raised alarms about the potential dangers the technology poses.
One of the most outspoken voices for the dangers of artificial superintelligence is xAI and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who stated AI has a 20 percent chance of causing human annihilation. Musk also noted that he “always thought AI was going to be way smarter than humans and an existential risk, and that’s turning out to be true.” In the past, Musk’s concerns of unpredictable and harmful AI led to the establishment of OpenAI alongside co-founder Sam Altman, though Musk later left the organization due to differing views on how it was evolving.
AI “godfather” Geoffrey Hinton has also expressed concerns about the long-term risks of superintelligent AI, including its potential to become smarter than humans and less controllable. Similarly, philosopher and AI ethicist Nick Bostrom has raised alarms in his book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, where he argues the creation of ASI could lead to a “risk-race to the bottom,” with nations or companies prioritizing technological speed and power over human safety.
Tech companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind have also taken a cautious stance toward ASI development. With its belief that superintelligence could be developed in the coming years, OpenAI stated it “[does] not know how to reliably steer and control superhuman AI systems.” Anthropic, focused on AI safety and research, said in a “pessimistic AI scenario” that its role will be to provide evidence that AI safety techniques cannot prevent catastrophic safety risks from advanced AI, and to “sound the alarm” to channel collective efforts against said threat. On the path to AGI and beyond, Google DeepMind stated too that it regularly evaluates its most advanced models for “potential dangerous capabilities.”
As AI experts and organizations call for a measured approach to development, it’s important that we consider the potential risks of ASI as its capabilities continue to evolve — especially those we have yet to see.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is AGI vs. ASI vs. AI?
AGI (artificial general intelligence) refers to artificial intelligence with human-level versatility. ASI (artificial superintelligence) surpasses human intelligence across all domains, while AI (artificial intelligence) broadly encompasses systems that simulate intelligent behavior.
Does ASI exist?
No, ASI is purely theoretical and has not been developed yet.
How smart would ASI be?
ASI would be exponentially smarter than humans, capable of solving complex problems and innovating in ways beyond human comprehension.
What are the future possibilities of ASI?
ASI could revolutionize science, solve global challenges, enhance creativity and potentially transform every aspect of human life. But it also carries significant risks, including the destruction of humanity.
