Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks a new chapter in U.S. politics, with significant implications for various employment and hiring practices. A key area of focus is the H-1B visa program, which allows U.S. companies to tap highly skilled talent from overseas.
During his first term as president, Trump was highly critical of the H-1B program, arguing that it was being misused to replace skilled U.S. workers with cheaper talent from overseas. And though his administration sought to limit the H-1B program, most of those attempts were either overturned by courts or delayed until his term ended.
Changes to the H-1B program could fundamentally alter how organizations attract and manage their employees, affecting thousands of U.S. tech companies. Now, as Trump prepares for a second term in office, the tech industry is left wondering whether his administration will pick up where it left off, or if some newfound allies in Silicon Valley will convince him to take a different approach.
What Is the H-1B Visa Program?
The H-1B visa program enables U.S. employers to hire highly skilled foreign professionals in “specialty occupations,” such as engineering, technology and medicine. The visa allows workers to live and work in the United States for a period of three years, with the possibility of extending the stay up to a total of six years.
Tech companies are among the primary users of the H-1B program, relying on it to fill positions in software development, engineering and data science. The program helps businesses stay competitive and innovative, especially in cutting-edge industries like artificial intelligence and biotechnology, where demand for highly skilled talent far outstrips the domestic supply.
But the program is also highly competitive. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has received more than 470,000 eligible applications for the 2025 fiscal year, far surpassing the annual cap of 65,000 visas (plus an additional 20,000 for those with advanced degrees from a U.S. university).
And while the H-1B program has certainly helped address U.S. labor shortages, it has also faced a lot of backlash. Critics argue that, instead of bringing the world’s “best and brightest” to work alongside Americans, the system appears to be bringing in cheaper foreign labor to replace American workers outright.
H-1B workers are required to have a bachelor’s degree or higher in their respective field, and they are categorized into one of four wage tiers based on their level of experience. At least 60 percent of H-1B workers are hired at the lowest two tiers, which pay 17 to 34 percent below the local median, according to a 2020 analysis by the Economic Policy Institute. A report by the National Foundation for American Policy, meanwhile, highlights several studies showing H-1B workers’ salaries, which average $118,000, are equal to those of U.S. workers.
Trump’s Record on H-1B Visas
During his 2016 campaign, Trump criticized the H-1B program for being “unfair,” claiming it undercut American workers with cheap labor from overseas and stating that “we should end it.” At that time, Disney was under fire for laying off 250 IT workers and replacing them with H-1B workers employed by HCL, an outsourcing firm. The laid-off workers were forced to train their replacements, who were earning half of their salary and no benefits.
Throughout Trump’s first term, his administration made several attempts to limit the H-1B visa program. Meanwhile, H-1B petition denials skyrocketed. After years in the single digits, the denial rate spiked to 24 percent in 2018 and 21 percent in 2019, according to USCIS data.
In June 2020, the Trump administration took things a step further by suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas amid the economic downturn caused by Covid-19 lockdowns, arguing that U.S. workers should not face excessive competition when job openings are in limited supply.
Later that year, the Department of Labor raised the minimum wage for H-1B workers, claiming employers were using the program to replace U.S. workers with cheaper foreign talent. At the same time, the Department of Homeland Security narrowed the definition of specialty occupations, requiring recipients to hold a degree directly related to their specific field. It also cracked down on consulting firms that assign H-1B employees to work with their clients. The ruling shifted the administrative burdens of the H-1B process onto the clients and limited workers’ residency to one year.
Both of these rules were struck down by a federal judge after two months. Other last-minute efforts to raise H-1B wages and institute a selection process prioritizing higher wage jobs were delayed until Trump left office. Nevertheless, these actions highlight the concerns the first Trump administration had with the H-1B visa program, and provide a glimpse into changes that could be coming in Trump’s second term.
Trump Changes His Tone
As he prepares for another presidential term, though, Trump seems to have shifted to a more supportive stance on H-1B visas.
“I have many H-1B visas on my properties,” he told the New York Post. “I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.”
According to the New York Times, Trump’s companies have “only sparingly” used the H-1B program, but they have extensively used the H-2 visa programs for unskilled workers like cooks and housekeepers.
Even so, Trump’s recent change of tune has sparked an internal debate amongst his closest advisors — most notably between longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who believes H-1B workers are taking away jobs from American workers, and tech mogul Elon Musk, a relatively new addition to Trump’s orbit who donated some $277 million to him and other GOP candidates in 2024. Musk, who will lead a newly created Department of Government Efficiency under the Trump administration, came to the U.S. on an H-1B visa and uses the program to hire foreign workers at his own companies. He says the H-1B program is needed to offset the “dire shortage of extremely talented and motivated engineers” in the U.S., adding that he is willing to “go to war on this issue.”
David Sacks, a former PayPal executive recently named Trump’s “White House AI and Crypto Czar”, is also an avid supporter of the new president, hosting a $12 million fundraiser for him in June 2024. Later that month, Trump made an appearance on the All-In podcast, which Sacks co-hosts. When asked what he would do to bring more tech talent to the U.S., Trump said international students who graduate from a U.S. college should automatically get a green card with their diploma.
In a follow-up statement to Reuters, the Trump campaign said only “the most skilled graduates who can make significant contributions to America” would be allowed to stay in the U.S., and only after the “the most aggressive vetting process in U.S. history.”
Predictions for Trump’s Second Term
In this upcoming term, Trump’s administration could reintroduce some of the previous measures from his first term, such as raising the minimum wage or narrowing the definition of “specialty occupations.”
Becki Young, a partner at immigration law firm Grossman, Young and Hammond, also identified several potential initiatives prescribed in Project 2025, a 922-page policy wishlist drafted by the The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. While Trump has repeatedly distanced himself from Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation has close ties with several former members of his advisory team and is backed by several pro-Trump organizations.
Eliminating Two Lowest Wage Tiers
Similar to Trump’s earlier efforts to raise the minimum wage for H-1B employees at each experience level and to prioritize H-1B petitions for workers earning higher salaries, Project 2025 suggests eliminating the lower two pay bands for “entry-level” and “qualified” workers, leaving only the higher two pay bands for “experienced” and “fully competent” employees.
“Even if you hire an entry-level person, you would have to pay them an experienced level wage,” Young said.
Instituting Visa Sanctions Against Recalcitrant Countries
A recalcitrant country is a country that refuses to repatriate a foreign national that has been deported from the U.S.. Project 2025 suggests banning all visas, including H-1B visas, to residents of any country that will not accept their return. India and China, the top two sources of H-1B workers, are both considered recalcitrant countries.
“If Chinese and Indian citizens were not able to get H-1B visas, that would obviously have a huge impact on the program,” Young said.
Eliminating Visas to Chinese Students
Project 2025 suggests Immigration and Customs Enforcement partner with the State Department to “eliminate or significantly reduce” the number of visas issued to foreign students from “enemy nations.” Elsewhere in the document, China is labeled an enemy of the United States. By not allowing Chinese students to attend school in the U.S., the government would be drastically reducing the pipeline of future H-1B workers, as China is the second-largest source of H-1B workers.
Ending Spousal Work Privileges
Spouses and unmarried children of H-1B employees are allowed to join the H-1B employee in the U.S. under an H-4 visa, meaning they aren’t allowed to work in the country unless they explicitly receive authorization from the USCIS. In May 2015, however, the USCIS extended employment eligibility to the spouses of H-1B workers who are in the process of becoming a permanent resident. The Trump administration proposed rescinding this eligibility in his first term, and Young suspects his administration will target the program again in his second term.
Increased Oversight and Scrutiny
Overall, Young expects the incoming Trump administration will continue to apply more scrutiny to H-1B petitions. Reflecting on Trump’s first term, she recalled instances where the government requested evidence proving that a bachelor’s degree was necessary for advanced roles, like a nuclear physicist and a lawyer.
“I expect that it’s going to cost more, it’s going to take longer and it’s going to be more difficult [to navigate the H-1B approval process],” Young said.