Principal Analyst, Forecasting

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We are seeking a Principal Analyst to join Takeda's GCC Commercial Analytics & Insights (CA&I) organization in India as part of the Forecasting capability supporting International Business Units (IBU). This is a senior individual contributor and technical lead role for analysts who have mastered the full forecasting toolkit and now set the analytical standard for the pod. The Principal Analyst owns the most complex, high-visibility forecasts across Ex-US markets - including patient-based prevalence and disease-progression models, demand-based models, and hybrid launch and long-range forecasts - serves as the go-to methodology expert, and mentors’ junior analysts while remaining hands-on. The role is accountable for model quality, methodology selection, and the analytical credibility of forecasting output delivered into brand planning, S&OP, and portfolio cycles.

• Own the design and delivery of the most complex and strategically important forecasts across multiple IBU markets and brands, spanning short-term tactical, long-term strategic (10+ years), in-line, pipeline and BD forecasts.
• Serve as the pod's methodology expert across the full toolkit - patient-based models (prevalence, incidence, disease progression), demand-based models (trend, time-series, regression, exponential smoothing), and hybrid approaches - and set the standard for which method fits each business question and data context.
• Lead sophisticated scenario, sensitivity, and risk analyses for competitive entries, LOEs, pricing and access changes, indication expansions, and cross-market events, quantifying uncertainty and framing decision options.
• Define and enforce assumption documentation, version control, peer-review, and audit-trail standards for the pod, ensuring reproducibility and stakeholder-ready quality.
• Own forecast accuracy governance - designing variance-tracking approaches, diagnosing drivers of deviation, and institutionalizing learnings into improved drivers and assumption libraries.

• Establish best practices for working with IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, syndicated subnational data, claims, prescription data, and epidemiology sources to build robust market and patient views across Ex-US geographies.
• Evaluate and introduce advanced statistical and machine learning techniques - including ARIMA, exponential smoothing, multivariate regression, Prophet, and other time-series methods - to improve forecast accuracy and efficiency.
• Design reusable model templates, assumption libraries, and dashboard frameworks in Excel, Tableau or Power BI, and where applicable Python or R, that raise the productivity and consistency of the entire pod.

• Act as a trusted analytical advisor to affiliate forecasting leads, brand teams, finance, and global IBU stakeholders, shaping how forecasting questions are framed and answered.
• Translate complex model outputs into decision-grade narratives, slides, and assumption summaries for commercial, finance, and senior leadership audiences.
• Represent the GCC forecasting pod as a subject-matter expert in brand planning, forecast review, S&OP, LRP, and ad-hoc strategic forums.

• Mentor Analysts and Senior Analysts through technical coaching, model reviews, and knowledge sharing, raising the analytical bar across the pod without formal people-management responsibility.
• Drive automation and standardization initiatives across recurring forecasting workflows, applying AI and GenAI tools to accelerate assumption research, deviation reasoning, narrative generation, and documentation.
• Contribute to onboarding, best-practice documentation, and capability-building programs for the GCC IBU forecasting team.

• Bachelor's Degree required in Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Life Sciences, Computer Science, Engineering, or a related quantitative field.
• Advanced degree (Master's or MBA) in Analytics, Economics, Data Science, Business, or a related quantitative field is strongly preferred.
• Relevant certifications in forecasting, analytics, cloud platforms, or statistical methods are a plus.

• 5-6 years of progressive experience in pharmaceutical forecasting or related quantitative areas, with a track record of owning complex forecasts independently.
• Deep hands-on experience building the full range of forecast types - including prevalence and disease-progression (patient-based) models and demand-based models, across short-term and long-term, in-line and launch horizons - across multiple markets.
• Experience supporting Ex-US markets is required, particularly EU markets; exposure to Asian or Latin American markets is a strong plus.
• Strong working knowledge of pharma data assets such as IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, prescription and claims data, and epidemiology sources for Ex-US markets.
• Advanced Excel skills for forecast model construction are required; demonstrated ability to design reusable templates and frameworks.
• Strong experience with Tableau or Power BI for forecast tracking, scenario reporting, and commercial performance dashboard development.
• Familiarity with cloud analytics environments (Databricks, AWS, Azure) and forecasting platforms (e.g., Anaplan, JDA/Blue Yonder, SAP IBP) is a plus.
• Demonstrated ability to serve as a methodology reference point and to mentor less experienced analysts.
• Proficiency in coding techniques such as Python, R, or SAS for time-series analysis, automation, and reproducibility is a nice to have, not a mandatory requirement.

• Forecasting Methodology Mastery – Recognized expert in selecting and applying patient-based (prevalence, disease-progression), demand-based, and hybrid approaches; sets the methodology standard for the pod.
• Technical Leadership – Elevates the analytical rigor of the team through peer review, template design, and hands-on problem solving on the hardest forecasts.
• Pharmaceutical Domain Depth – Deep command of demand drivers, patient flow, lifecycle stages, and competitive dynamics across therapy areas and Ex-US markets.
• Analytical Rigor – Institutionalizes disciplined assumption management, sensitivity analysis, and accuracy governance across deliverables.
• Stakeholder Influence – Shapes how forecasting questions are framed and trusted as an analytical advisor by affiliate, brand, finance, and global partners.
• Data Storytelling – Distils complex forecast outputs, assumptions, and scenarios into clear, decision-grade narratives.
• Mentorship – Coaches and develops junior analysts' technical skills and forecasting judgment.
• Cross-Cultural Communication – Fluent communicator across India-EU-Asia-LatAm time zones and organizational levels.

In alignment with Takeda’s Values-Based Culture, this role requires demonstration of the following leadership behaviors:

• Act with Integrity — Deliver accurate, transparent work and take full responsibility for quality.
• Collaborate Cross-Functionally — Contribute positively to GCC-IBU team workflows and cross-functional collaboration.
• Drive Accountability — Take ownership of all assigned tasks and deliver on commitments.
• Embrace Learning — Continuously build analytical and domain capabilities through feedback and self-driven development.

BENEFITS:

It is our priority to provide competitive compensation and a benefit package that bridges your personal life with your professional career. Amongst our benefits are:

• Competitive Salary + Performance Annual Bonus

• Flexible work environment, including hybrid working

• Comprehensive Healthcare Insurance Plans for self, spouse, and children

• Group Term Life Insurance and Group Accident Insurance programs

• Employee Assistance Program

• Broad Variety of learning platforms

• Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Programs

• Reimbursements – Home Internet & Mobile Phone

• Employee Referral Program

• Leaves – Paternity Leave (4 Weeks) , Maternity Leave (up to 26 weeks), Bereavement Leave (5 calendar days)

ABOUT ICC IN TAKEDA:

• Takeda is leading a digital revolution. We’re not just transforming our company; we’re improving the lives of millions of patients who rely on our medicines every day.

• As an organization, we are committed to our cloud-driven business transformation and believe the ICCs are the catalysts of change for our global organization.

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