We built social platforms to connect people, only to watch these same platforms weaponized for disinformation campaigns. We created IoT devices to simplify lives, then discovered we’d opened millions of backdoors to attackers. This pattern repeats: We excel at innovation but consistently fail to imagine how our innovations will be misused a decade from now.
Our blind spot in product development and cybersecurity planning demands a new approach. Enter threatcasting: a structured methodology for envisioning and mitigating future risks before they materialize. Having worked at the intersection of technology and security, I’ve seen firsthand how this forward-looking framework transforms both product development and digital defense strategies.
What Is Threatcasting?
Threatcasting is a strategic planning method developed by futurist Brian David Johnson to anticipate and prepare for potential risks 10 years in advance. Through structured scenario planning, diverse teams create detailed future threat narratives, identify early warning signals and “backcast” to determine present-day decisions. The goal is to build resilience into products and security systems before threats emerge.
The Cost of Short-Term Thinking
Traditional product development operates on quarterly roadmaps and annual security audits. We patch vulnerabilities after they’re exploited, regulate platforms after they’ve disrupted democracies and scramble for quantum-resistant encryption as quantum computers edge closer to breaking our current standards. The reactive cycle leaves organizations perpetually behind the threat curve.
Consider the evolution of generative AI. Organizations rushing to integrate large language models into their products today are repeating familiar patterns. They’re optimizing for immediate capabilities while barely considering how these same tools will empower sophisticated attackers in 2035. We’re building tomorrow’s attack infrastructure today, just as we inadvertently did with social media algorithms that now fuel polarization and manipulation at scale.
Threatcasting: Engineering Tomorrow’s Defense Today
Threatcasting offers a different path. Developed by applied futurist Brian David Johnson, this methodology provides a framework for systematically exploring potential threats a decade out. As Johnson explains, “Threatcasting is an applied futures methodology ... it looks 10 years out at a specific threat space.” But its real value extends beyond prediction; it’s about building resilience into products and systems from inception.
The process works through structured scenario planning. Teams gather diverse perspectives including technologists, ethicists, historians and even contrarians to model specific future threats. Rather than abstract speculation about “AI risks,” participants create detailed narratives: a specific person, in a specific place, facing a specific threat 10 years from now. This human-centered approach transforms vague anxieties into actionable insights.
From these scenarios, teams backcast to identify critical decision points. If ransomware evolves to target biometric authentication systems by 2035, what architectural choices should we make today? If quantum computers crack current encryption within a decade, which data migration strategies need to begin now? The methodology transforms distant possibilities into present-day engineering requirements.
Beyond Prevention: Building Adaptive Systems
Threatcasting’s power lies in systematic preparation rather than perfect prediction. Teams that regularly engage in this practice develop what I call “threat intuition,” an enhanced ability to spot emerging risks early and pivot quickly. They build products with deeper security primitives and more flexible architectures because they’ve already imagined multiple attack scenarios.
In cybersecurity applications, threatcasting becomes even more critical. Digital warfare evolves at Silicon Valley speed, not Pentagon pace. Nation-state actors and criminal syndicates eagerly adopt each new technology, often faster than defenders. By projecting how today’s emerging capabilities, from AI to quantum computing, will reshape the threat landscape, security teams can invest in countermeasures before attacks materialize.
Early indicators represent another crucial element. As teams map 10-year scenarios, they identify specific signals that a hypothetical threat is becoming real. These flags transform threatcasting from thought experiment to operational framework, telling leaders when to escalate investment and when to activate contingency plans.
Practical Implementation for Product Teams
Getting started with threatcasting doesn’t require a consulting army or months of preparation. Begin with focused sessions on specific domains. Perhaps explore how your authentication system might be attacked in 2035, or how your data pipeline could be poisoned by future AI systems.
Here are some key practices I’ve found effective.
Start Small and Specific
Pick one product feature or security domain. A two-hour workshop exploring future vulnerabilities in your payment system yields more actionable insights than a week theorizing about abstract AI risks.
Diversify Your Perspectives
Include voices from outside your immediate team. The marketing manager might spot social engineering vectors your engineers miss. The customer support lead understands user behavior patterns that inform realistic attack scenarios.
Make It Routine
Threatcasting works like scenario planning. It’s a muscle that strengthens with use. As Johnson notes, “The more you do it, the better you’ll get.” Quarterly sessions keep teams alert to emerging risks and build institutional knowledge about potential futures.
Document Your Indicators
The scenarios matter less than the early warning signals you identify, such as a measurable rise in AI-generated misinformation targeting banks or an increase in reported vulnerabilities in smart medical devices. Create dashboards or review processes to monitor these flags systematically.
Connect to Current Decisions
Always link future scenarios to present choices. If you can’t identify decisions to make today based on your threatcasting output, you’re staying too abstract.
The Competitive Advantage of Future-Focused Security
Organizations embracing threatcasting gain more than improved security. They develop strategic foresight that permeates product decisions. They ship features with built-in safeguards rather than bolted-on patches. They architect systems assuming compromise rather than praying for protection. Most importantly, they avoid becoming tomorrow’s cautionary tale.
The evidence supports the approach. Companies that engaged in supply chain threatcasting before Covid-19 adapted months faster than unprepared competitors. Teams that explored AI-assisted cyberattacks two years ago now lead in developing defensive strategies. The practice builds organizational resilience that extends beyond specific scenarios.
As we stand at the threshold of transformative technologies like quantum computing threatening current encryption, AI democratizing sophisticated attacks and biotechnology introducing entirely new threat vectors, we must engage in future-focused planning. We need to shape these futures deliberately rather than stumbling into them blindly.
