Portfolio Research Analyst

Reporting to the Head of Trading & Risk, the Portfolio Research Analyst will produce market outlooks, price forecasts and thematic research that directly inform the team’s hedging decisions, procurement strategy and budget planning cycle. The scope of this role is EMEA wide.

You will be responsible for generating actionable market research and fundamental analysis across European energy and commodity markets to support the development and execution of DS Smith’s hedging strategies. The Portfolio Research Analyst provides the team with forward-looking insights on price drivers, supply/demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors that influence the Group’s energy and starch commodity cost base.

The Energy & Commodity Category Team is accountable for all physical Energy supply contracts across DS Smith, management of claims, reporting and input to the central Energy Management System, supporting Energy Tax workflows for all sites, shaping and aligning the Energy & Commodity Procurement strategy to support growth, innovation, ESG (inc. Scope 3) and manufacturing excellence, partnering with stakeholders to ensure the function competitively sources quality products and supplier services whilst maintaining strong relationships with strategic suppliers in line with group Innovation, ESG and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion goals.

Key Accountabilities:

Market Research & Fundamental Analysis

• Conduct in-depth fundamental analysis of European power, natural gas, carbon (EUA) and agricultural commodity (starch/wheat) markets, including supply/demand balances, storage dynamics, weather impacts, regulatory developments and geopolitical factors

• Monitor macroeconomic indicators (interest rates, FX, inflation) and their implications for energy and commodity price trajectories

• Maintain and develop comprehensive market databases and data feeds to support continuous research activities

Price Forecasting & Quantitative Modelling

• Develop and maintain price forecasting models for key energy and commodity markets using statistical, econometric and machine learning approaches

• Provide forward price curve estimates and scenario-based forecasts to support hedging programme design and budget assumptions

• Collaborate with the Portfolio Risk Analyst to integrate research outputs into risk scenarios and stress tests

Hedging Strategy Support

• Translate research findings into specific hedging recommendations, identifying optimal timing, instrument selection and hedging horizon

• Provide real-time market commentary and tactical insights to the Senior Execution Trader to support execution decisions

• Support the Head of Trading & Risk in preparing strategy presentations for the Commodity Risk Committee and senior stakeholders

• Identify emerging risks and opportunities across commodity markets that may require a strategic response

Stakeholder Engagement / Business Partnering

• Communicate market insights and forecasts clearly to both specialist and non-specialist audiences within the business

• Partner with Procurement Category teams to align research outputs with physical procurement strategies

• Engage with Finance and Treasury on commodity price assumptions used in business planning and budget cycles

• Build and maintain relationships with external research providers, banks and brokers to access best-in-class market intelligence

Initiative Management

• Lead or contribute to research and data infrastructure improvement projects

• Contribute to the development of ESG-related commodity research, including carbon market dynamics and Scope 3 emissions

Health & Safety

• Ensure H&S clauses are embedded in supplier and counterparty contracts and manage non-compliance issues or breaches

About you:

• Strong knowledge of European energy markets (power, gas, EUAs) and agricultural commodity markets

• Experience in fundamental market analysis, price forecasting and econometric modelling

• Familiarity with quantitative and statistical techniques applied to commodity market research

• Understanding of energy market regulation, carbon markets and ESG factors affecting commodity prices

• Analytical excellence: Ability to synthesise large volumes of market data into clear, concise and actionable insights

• Intellectual curiosity: Continuously seeks out new data sources, methodologies and market developments

• Communication and influencing: Ability to present complex research findings compellingly to senior stakeholders

• Fluency in English; additional European language advantageous

• Intellectual rigour and commitment to evidence-based analysis

• Bachelor’s degree in Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, Environmental Science or a related discipline; Master’s degree desirable

• Minimum 5 years’ relevant experience in a commodity or energy market research role, ideally within a trading house, bank, utility or specialist consultancy

• Strong Excel and data management skills essential; Python or R programming skills strongly preferred

• Experience with market data platforms (Bloomberg, Reuters Eikon, Argus, ICIS) required

• Demonstrated experience in price forecasting and econometric or statistical modelling

“To fulfil our purpose of redefining packaging for a changing world, we aim to build a diverse, motivated, and engaged workforce. Our goal is to create a culture of inclusion where everyone is treated fairly, differences are valued, and everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed.

Our people come from diverse backgrounds, bring different perspectives, ideas and experiences to generate unique solutions focused on present and future sustainability challenges. We welcome all candidates to apply, even those not meeting all criteria.”