Job Purpose
Oversee all forecasting activities associated with customers and products including analyzing statistical data, generating forecasting solutions, and maintaining accurate data in the forecasting systems. Create and maintain the demand plan and all forecasting activities associated with customers and products of assigned channel. Ensure demand plans use appropriate statistical models, incorporate business intelligence, and forecast information from sales, marketing, finance, advanced analytics, and other sources. Ensure forecasts deliver current, accurate market information that allows the company to accurately predict and meet customer demand and provides the company with appropriate information to achieve its financial goals.
Essential Functions
- Own and manage demand forecasts (sales, operational, and financial volume forecasts) at customer-item-shipping location level as part of the demand planning function
- Create, review, and validate the demand plan for rolling 24-month horizon through statistical models and incorporating business intelligence from multiple sources to achieve an unbiased customer demand plan
- Lead the research of demand drivers, preparation of forecast data, and development of statistical forecast models
- Direct the review of historical sales trends and forecasts; review statistical forecast models and evaluate forecast results
- Analyze and update SKU-level demand signal based on trends, alerts, models, assumption changes, inputs, etc.
- Coordinate communication with sales, marketing, finance, procurement, supply planning, and other departments to ensure that current, accurate data is available for forecasts
- Coordinate data preparation for cross-functional forecasting meetings with the national sales team
- Facilitate the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process by analyzing, preparing, and reporting on future and past sales forecast performance, changes from prior month, and gap to plan
- Coordinate cross-functional research activities to reconcile significant variances and refine the forecast model to reflect updated sales and marketing assumptions
- Establish and drive improvements to Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) including forecast accuracy (MAPE) and bias, inventory (gross/net dollars, DIOH), Slow Moving/Obsolete, and customer service (OTIF)
- Partner with sales, marketing, and finance to understand demand forecast drivers
- Play a key role in the annual planning process; ensure linkage to monthly volume forecast as part of financial forecasting process
- Manage SAP APO DP and volume planning software as the primary forecasting system tool
- Manage other supply chain related systems including ERP, MRP, data mapping tables, etc.
- Provide ad-hoc analytics and scenario planning for, but not limited to, supply chain, customer demand, annual operating plans, sales budget, etc.
- Provide input to supply planning, procurement, commercialization, customer service, etc., in developing inventory strategies on existing items, new products, and product phase-outs
- Coordinate phase-on of new products and phase-out of discontinued products
- Closely coordinate and communicate customer action plans with supply planning
- Lead ERP transitions for Demand Planning including data cleaning, validation, and implementation phase
- Serve as an expert on the SAP APO DP system including, but not limited to, creating, deleting, and realigning CVCs; maintaining Product Lifecycle Table; running batch jobs; reviewing job logs to eliminate issues; alert monitoring; and understanding how the data flows into APO DP and out to the downstream Supply Chain tools
- Help facilitate the training of new users to the SAP APO DP tool; serve as key point of contact for user questions and concerns
- Validate master data and oversee the accuracy of changes made in SAP to ensure accurate data alignment between planning and execution systems crucial to the overall success of the S&OP process
- Support food safety program, quality standards, and legality of manufactured products
- Perform other job-related duties as assigned
Qualifications (Education, Experience, Competencies)
- Bachelor's degree in supply chain, finance, business, statistics, mathematics or related field
- 5+ years of consumer products forecasting or supply chain operations experience; familiarity with S&OP processes, customer planning, or supply planning
- APICS Certification (CPIM or CSCP) desired
- IBF Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) designation desired
- Expert knowledge of SAP APO DP forecasting application or supply planning software
- Experience with or knowledge of IRI, Retail Link, and other external customer data sources
- Food manufacturing experience and familiarity with commodity sensitive businesses preferred
- Retail and foodservice channel experience desired
- Experience leading projects
- Strong understanding of statistical reasoning including multiple linear regression modeling, coefficient of variation, Pearson seasonal test, and seasonal index
- Knowledge of other statistical analytical tools, such as Python or R
- Strong quantitative and analytical skills
- Strong computer skills including Microsoft Office with advanced skills in Excel; experience with ERP Systems, SAP APO DP knowledge preferred; Power BI and SQL desired
- Experience with manufacturing modules including MRP, MPS, and WMS desired
- Strong decision-making skills with the ability to think critically and solve complex problems
- Strong interpersonal skills and demonstrated ability to work effectively within an organization and collaborate with internal and external clients to determine requirements and eliminate barriers that may affect the delivery of product
- Ability to organize, manage multiple priorities, and maintain high attention to detail in a fast-paced environment
MON123
RISE123
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington, D.C. Residents Only: The salary range for this role is $90,000 to $125,000.00 annually. Pay is based upon several factors including but not limited to local labor markets, education, work experience, certifications, etc. Rise Baking Company complies with all minimum wage laws as applicable. In addition to your annual salary, Rise Baking Company offers benefits such as a comprehensive benefits package, annual bonus eligibility, incentive and recognition programs and 401k contributions (all benefits are subject to eligibility requirements). At Rise Baking Company, our people are our finest ingredient.
Skills Required
- Bachelor's degree in supply chain, finance, business, statistics, mathematics, or a related field
- 5+ years of consumer products forecasting or supply chain operations experience
- Familiarity with S&OP processes, customer planning, or supply planning
- Expert knowledge of SAP APO DP forecasting application or supply planning software
- Experience with or knowledge of IRI, Retail Link, and other external customer data sources
- Strong understanding of statistical reasoning, including multiple linear regression, coefficient of variation, Pearson seasonal test, and seasonal index
- Strong quantitative and analytical skills
- Strong computer skills, including Microsoft Office and advanced Excel
- Strong decision-making, critical-thinking, and complex problem-solving skills
- Strong interpersonal and collaboration skills
- Ability to organize, manage multiple priorities, and maintain attention to detail
- APICS CPIM or CSCP certification
- IBF Certified Professional Forecaster designation
- Food manufacturing experience and familiarity with commodity-sensitive businesses
- Retail and foodservice channel experience
- Experience leading projects
- Knowledge of statistical analytical tools such as Python or R
- Power BI and SQL experience
- Experience with ERP systems and SAP APO DP
- Experience with manufacturing modules including MRP, MPS, and WMS
Rise Baking Company Compensation & Benefits Highlights
The following summarizes recurring compensation and benefits themes identified from responses generated by popular LLMs to common candidate questions about Rise Baking Company and has not been reviewed or approved by Rise Baking Company.
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Retirement Support — A dollar-for-dollar 401(k) match on initial contributions is standard, with some roles also noting additional employer retirement contributions or incentive programs. Feedback suggests this benefit is reliable across eligible positions.
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Healthcare Strength — Comprehensive medical, dental, vision, life, disability, and supplemental coverage are offered. Feedback suggests health-insurance costs are generally acceptable.
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Leave & Time Off Breadth — Paid time off and company-paid holidays, including a floating holiday, are provided. Feedback indicates PTO is broadly available, though specifics vary by position and eligibility.
Rise Baking Company Insights
What We Do
The joy of baking has always brought people together. Rise is a company built on elevating expectations. It’s what sets us apart from others in the baking industry. And why we are dedicated to putting our customer's success above all else. We are a relationship-based company where the quality of our people is just as important as the quality of our products. Our environment encourages creativity, and we value an entrepreneurial and industrious approach to work. Simply put, we are a family. A place where honesty, respect and trust are the essential ingredients for how we do business. We take pride in working with creative individuals with a passion for what they do, and we’re always looking to expand our team.
