Manager, Allocation & Modelling - GL E - Defined Duration until December 2029

Manager, Allocation & Modelling - GL E - Defined Duration until December 2029

The Manager, Allocation and Modelling leads the Global Fund’s allocation methodology and strategic modelling capabilities, ensuring that quantitative evidence informs how resources are prioritized and invested to maximize impact.
The role provides strategic leadership across allocation, portfolio optimization and disease-specific modelling, developing and applying analytical approaches to inform organization-wide investment choices, resource allocation, introduction of programmatic interventions and external communications materials.
The role leads the development, implementation, evolution and reporting of the Global Fund’s allocation methodology, which takes place on a three-year cycle and determines the funding available to eligible country disease programs. This includes scenario modelling, qualitative adjustments and assessment of policy options, and advises senior leadership and governance on the implications of different investment choices. They interact with internal and external stakeholders on allocation matters, to develop and build consensus on refined allocation and investment approaches and report on its outcomes.
The role will also build up the Global Fund’s in-house modelling capacity to support specific investment decisions at different levels of the response – from individual interventions and portfolio choices to cross-country, corporate investment decisions and support development of the Investment Case. This capability will be demand-driven and responsive, enabling faster use of Global Fund data and modelling to test options, assess trade offs and support timely decision-making, rather than relying primarily on externally commissioned analysis. The role will also engage and triangulate closely with external modelling partners and technical experts, drawing together internal analysis, external models and broader evidence to test assumptions, validate findings and provide robust advice to decision makers.
Across allocation and modelling, the role will be responsible for the appropriate use of AI and emerging analytical tools to accelerate delivery, while maintaining appropriate quality assurance and expert judgement.
The Manager leads and develops the Allocation & Strategic Modelling team and is accountable for the people, processes and ways of working required to deliver a high-performing analytical function. This includes setting priorities, managing demand and capacity, establishing fit-for-purpose analytical and quality-assurance processes, developing staff and deploying resources flexibly against the highest-priority organizational needs.
Working across technical, programmatic, finance and grant management teams, the role translates complex evidence into actionable recommendations, strengthens the systematic use of modelling in strategic decision-making and organizational learning, and represents the Secretariat with governance and external technical partners on allocation and strategic modelling matters.

Key Responsibilities

• Lead and develop the Global Fund’s allocation and strategic modelling capability, setting a direction and priorities, establishing effective analytical approaches and scenario modelling to inform resource allocation, portfolio optimization and investment decisions, and managing demand and capacity flexibly to maximize impact
• Lead the development, evolution and implementation of the allocation methodology ensuring a robust and transparent approach to allocating scarce resources, including capturing lessons learned from the previous approach; the refining and securing Board approval for the allocation methodology and policies for the upcoming cycle; scenario analysis; and overseeing the allocation formula
• Oversee the end-to-end allocation execution, including lessons learned, scenario analysis and options, Board and Strategy Committee approvals, implementation of the allocation formula, qualitative adjustments, country allocation outcomes and reporting.
• Provide strategic advice to senior leadership and governance translating complex modelling and quantitative evidence into clear investment choices and implications to facilitate high-level decision making, presenting to the Board and Strategy Committee where needed. Lead strategic engagement with technical and community partners, external modelling groups and other expert institutions on allocation and evidence-driven investment, leveraging complementary expertise and data, triangulating analytical approaches and evidence, and ensuring Global Fund allocation and modelling approaches reflects evolving technical evidence and best practice.
• Represent the Global Fund at external and internal fora to present on matters of allocation, modelling and evidence-driven investments
• Lead disease-specific and cross-portfolio modelling and analysis, triangulating internal analysis with external models and evidence and engaging modelling partners and technical experts to test assumptions, validate findings and provide robust recommendations for decision-making and provide inputs for the Global Fund Investment Case.
• Step change the Global Fund’s in-house strategic modelling capability, including tools, processes, standards and quality-assurance mechanisms needed to deliver timely modelling for strategic and investment decisions.
• Establish a demand-driven modelling approach for the organization, enabling teams to access responsive analytical support that makes better use of Global Fund data and reduces reliance on externally commissioned analysis where internal capability can provide timely and robust outputs.
• Drive innovation in modelling and analytical ways of working, including the responsible use of AI and emerging analytical tools to accelerate analysis, make better use of Global Fund data, improve responsiveness and increase the efficiency of analytical processes while maintaining appropriate expert judgment and quality assurance.
• Lead and develop the Allocation & Strategic Modelling team and its operating model, setting priorities, managing people, demand and capacity, establishing effective processes and quality controls, and deploying resources flexibly to meet priority organizational needs.
• Manage the tracking and reporting on the allocation financial waterfall, from country-level program splits to the reconciliation of final grant amounts against total allocated funding.

Subject to change by the Executive Director at any time at his or her sole discretion.

Qualifications

Essential:

• An advanced University degree (Master’s degree or equivalent) in health economics, public health, economics, international/ public affairs, or any quantitative discipline; or an equivalent combination of academic/ professional qualifications and experience.

Desirable:

• Additional qualifications in any of the relevant areas of technical expertise.

Experience

Essential:

• Significant experience leading quantitative and qualitative analysis, modelling or scenario development to inform resource allocation, portfolio optimization, investment prioritization or strategic decision-making in a global health, public health or related development context.
• Experience using or overseeing use of digital tools, e.g. Excel modelling, Python or other quantitative modelling/programming tools, with sufficient technical understanding to provide direction and quality assurance.
• Demonstrated experience developing and applying analytical approaches to support decision-making at different levels, translating complex data and modelling into clear options, trade-offs and recommendations.
• Strong experience in global health financing and investment prioritization, with understanding of the programmatic and financing context for malaria, tuberculosis or HIV/AIDS or health systems strengthening.
• Demonstrated experience working with technical partners, modelling groups and external experts, including triangulating different models, evidence sources and perspectives to inform robust conclusions.
• Experience representing an organization in external technical fora and partnerships on allocation, modelling, global health financing or evidence-driven investment.
• Excellent track record in designing and managing a project and lead a team to meet targets or deadlines within given timeframe.
• Demonstrated ability to direct a team working on highly complex quantitative and qualitative analysis, including defining the scope of analysis, quality controlling, and delivering high quality output under tight timelines
• Demonstrated ability to manage politically sensitive or high-stakes situations, building consensus across internal and external stakeholders and supporting strategically important decisions

Desirable:

• Over 8 years relevant professional experience.
• Over 4 years’ experience in senior professional level/managerial positions in global health or public health setting.
• Experience applying AI, automation or emerging analytical approaches to modelling, data analysis or decision support.

Competencies

Languages:

An excellent knowledge of English and preferably a good working knowledge of French. Knowledge of other languages would be an asset.

Functional Competencies:

• Analytical – Expert
• Business–Expert
• Finance – Mastery
• Global Public Health– Mastery
• Human rights/Gender/Key populations – Mastery
• Multicultural Understanding - Mastery
• Strengthening Systems for Health – Mastery
• Project Management - Expert

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Job Posting End Date

08 November 2026