Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge

About

We’re living through one of the most significant global shifts in modern history, where new geopolitical, technological, and economic forces are reshaping the world - transitioning away from decades of globalization to a new world order - what Bridgewater calls modern mercantilism.

Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge invites you to dive into the evolving global economy and predict how the next era of Modern Mercantilism will transform trade, policy, and power on the global stage.

Who Wins? Who Loses? Why?

Submit your analysis for a chance to win $25K and receive an employment or internship opportunity at Bridgewater, pending successful completion of its interview requirements.

Challenge Details

Bridgewater studies the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets, turning that understanding into data-driven algorithms that adapt as the world changes. Their goal is to build a system that can both interpret the global economy and guide smart investment decisions - balancing big-picture trends like debt cycles with precise forecasts like interest rate movements.

The Bridgewater and Global Citizen “Forecasting the Future” Challenge invites you into this complex world, focusing on a key issue for today’s leaders: the rise of Modern Mercantilism, where governments actively shape economies to boost national power, cut trade deficits, and drive industrial growth.

Part 1: Your Forecasts

• Goal
• Create a minimum of 20 binary forecasts (yes/no outcomes) with assigned probabilities.
• Length
• Each forecast must be one sentence and have clear, objective resolution criteria. No page limit.
• Timeframes
• Cover short- and long-term timeframes (1 to 10 years).
• Focus
  Focus on well-calibrated predictions - your probabilities should match outcomes over time. All forecasts must clearly relate to Modern Mercantilism.
• ✅ Example: "There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026–2028."
• ❌Avoid vague predictions like: "Political polarization will increase."

Part 2: Your Framework and Holistic Synthesis

• Goal
• Present your big-picture view of how Modern Mercantilism will shape the next decade.
• Framework
• Build a coherent framework that ties together your forecasts into a broader understanding.
• Explain
• Explain the key cause-and-effect dynamics you believe will drive global events.
• Reference Forecasts
• Reference a few of your most impactful forecasts from Part 1 to illustrate your thinking.
• Focus
• Focus on clarity and structure - this is about synthesis, not justifying each individual forecast.
• Visual Support
• You may include charts or data to support your framework.
• Length
• Maximum of 3 pages in length.

Part 3: Analytical Appendix

• Goal
• Back up your predictions with clear reasoning, relevant evidence, and thoughtful analysis.
• How to use this section is up to you:
• Use this space your way—whether it's to explain the reasoning behind your forecasts, share models that support your views, or dive deeper into the most important parts of your analysis.
• Length
• We recommend 10 pages or less (but we will never stop reading analysis if it’s great).